England are dominating Pakistan in the Test series. They won the first Test at Headingley by an innings and 103 runs. Now they face Pakistan in the second Test at Lord’s. England are firm favourites. Stuart Broad called Pakistan a “poor side”. But Pakistan have a chance to fight back. They have won their last two Tests at Lord’s. Here is our England vs Pakistan prediction.
The Series So Far
England won the first Test comfortably. They bowled Pakistan out for 171 and 135. England piled up 409 to establish a 238-run first-innings lead. It was a complete performance. Joe Root returned as Test captain. He led from the front. Jofra Archer is back to full fitness. He looks sharp. England’s seam attack troubled Pakistan’s top order throughout.
Pakistan had a nightmare. They lost 14 of their last 19 Test matches. They have lost nine of their last ten away games. The defeat at Headingley pushed them to the bottom of the WTC table. They have a win percentage of 19.05%. That is a terrible record. They need a response.
Head-to-Head Record
England have dominated this fixture. They have played 93 Test matches against Pakistan. England have won 31. Pakistan have won 23. There have been 39 draws. England have won 8 of the last 10 meetings. That is an 80% win rate. Pakistan have won just 2. That is a significant psychological edge for England.
The record at Lord’s is also in England’s favour. Out of 57 matches at Lord’s, England have won 25. Pakistan have won 12. There have been 20 draws. But here is the interesting part. Pakistan have won their last two Tests at Lord’s. They won in 2016 and 2018. That gives them hope.
Venue and Conditions
Lord’s is a special ground. It is the home of cricket. The atmosphere is unique. The slope is a factor. The pitch traditionally offers something for everyone. Seamers get movement early. Spinners come into play later. Batsmen need to be patient.
Conditions are expected to be dry. The pitch is likely to be relatively flat and slower. That could help Pakistan. They could field two specialist spinners. That is a possibility. The weather is expected to be partly sunny. Rain is unlikely. A full five days of cricket is expected.
Team News and Lineups
England are settled. Joe Root captains the side. Jordan Cox bats at No. 3. Dan Lawrence is at No. 6. The pace attack includes Jofra Archer, Josh Tongue, Ollie Robinson, and Gus Atkinson. Marcus Trescothick is the interim head coach. Stephen Fleming takes over in December.
Pakistan are likely to make changes. Babar Azam missed the first Test with a finger injury. He is expected to return. That is a huge boost. He is their best batsman. If Babar returns, Azan Awais is likely to be dropped. Mohammad Rizwan could be rested. That would be a bold call. Ubaid Shah is in contention. Pakistan could field two specialist spinners. Stand-in captain Salman Ali Agha leads the side.
What the Data Says
The numbers are clear. England are strong favourites. The win probability for England is 67.84%. Pakistan are at just 15.38%. The draw is at 16.78%. That is a big gap. England are priced at 1.36 on BetRivers. Pakistan are at 6.0. The draw is at 5.5. The market expects England to win.
England have won four of their last five matches. They have won seven Tests in a row at Headingley. They are in good form. Pakistan are in poor form. They have lost 14 of their last 19 Tests. They have lost nine of their last ten away games. The data is stacked against them.
England vs Pakistan Prediction
England are the clear favourites. They have home advantage. They have better form. They have better players. They have the psychological edge. They won the first Test convincingly. They will be confident.
Pakistan have quality players. Babar Azam is one of the best batsmen in the world. Shaheen Afridi can take wickets. But they have been inconsistent. They need to perform as a unit. They have not done that recently.
Lord’s is a special ground. It can inspire teams. Pakistan have won their last two Tests here. That is a confidence boost. But this is a different Pakistan team. They are struggling. England are flying.
Our England vs Pakistan prediction is an England win. They should take a 2-0 lead in the series. Pakistan will fight. They have pride to play for. But England should be too strong.
Prediction: England to win
Final Thoughts
The England vs Pakistan prediction is not straightforward. Pakistan have the history at Lord’s. They have beaten England here before. But this is a different England team. They are dominant. They are confident. They are at home.
Pakistan need to improve. They need to bat better. They need to bowl better. They need to field better. They need to believe. Babar’s return will help. But one player cannot fix everything.
Expect England to win. Expect them to take a 2-0 lead. They have too much quality.
Our England vs Pakistan prediction is England to win.